Obama Re-Elected in Electoral Landslide

Obama has officially won the state of Florida, finalizing the electoral tally of 332:206. While this year's popular vote was extremely close (51:48) Obama won by almost as large a margin in the electoral college system  as he had in 2008. As predicted, most coastal and urban areas went democratic, while Republicans had a better grasp of the rural, landlocked areas. This lead Obama win a second term.
The problem for Obama is what happens next: the Presidency. Just like before the election, Obama faces a divided Congress. The Senate remained democratic after key losses by Republicans (Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock). Instead of winning the Senate as party leaders predicted, the Republicans lost seats in the Senate. It was the House that ruined the Democrats' perfect night. The democrats could not win enough seats to take back the house. While they did gain a few seats, their performance was no where near as great as the Republicans had in 2010.

Close Race Headed for Home

The Elephant and The Donkey's Election Day Predictions

             With just one week left until election day, the campaigns are at a near dead heat in the popular vote. While the Electoral College System gives an advantage to Obama, the race is far from over. Most election trackers show Obama with a 47 point Electoral College lead (now where have I heard that number before?), with 253 Colleges compared to Romney's 206. While six states are still toss-ups, most of them in dead heats, this race isn't as close as it seems. To win, all Obama has to do is pick up either Ohio, or Florida, or an assortment of other states that adds up to 17. Romney on the other hand needs to pick up every swing state (excluding New Hampshire, and Colorado) to win the Presidency.
              While the election appears to be trending Obama on the Electoral College front, Romney could easily win the popular vote. A variety of factors could also change the result of the election. For one Hurricane Sandy could make a mess of transportation. This would let only the most passionate of East Coast voters come to the polls. Voter turn out could be extremely low. While it's extremely likely that President Obama will be re-elected as the saying goes, it ain't over till it's over.

Race Tightens After Obama Flops at Debate

Wednesday's debate was Mitt Romney's last chance. It seemed nearly impossible that Mitt Romney could get back into the presidential race. His campaign was plagued with bad news, the end result had Romney down six points in the polls. Romney's chances were so low just weeks before the election, but Romney did the improbable, he turned the polls around. Obama's seemingly unstoppable lead was neutralized.
From the start of the night, the President was a little shaky. He dodged questions, misrepresented facts, and seemed generally uncomfortable. The debate had Obama on the defense, and Romney leading a strong offense. Nearly every point the President made Gov. Romney would counter. Romney left the debate the clear victor, once again energizing his campaign and base.
Obama, however, leaves the week with two pieces of good news. First, a stellar jobs report shows that the unemployment rate has dropped under the magic number of 8% to 7.8%. Obama had been quoted saying that if unemployment was above eight percent by the next election, then he would be looking at "a one term proposition". The 7.8% unemployment rate will be a huge boost to his campaign, serving as a check mark to one of his most famous promises.
Obama's second piece of good news was the number of donations Obama earned during the month of September. September was a very strong month for Obama. It started with a stellar Democratic Convention, and ended with Romney's infamous 47% comment. The net result of the month: a record setting $181 million. These numbers will provide a boost to the Obama Campaign, which hadn't been raising as much money as the Romney Campaign in recent months.
The race has become much closer after the debate, and it was a missed opportunity for Obama. While this week will not end on an extremely high note, which should normally happen after the jobs numbers and the donation numbers, the accomplishments balanced out the debate performances leaving the Obama Campaign hopeful for the weeks to come. While the Obama Campaign has had an okay week, Romney's campaign has had a wonderful, and possibly game-changing week. Romney's debate performance has put him back in the presidential race. This week's clear winner was Romney. Still, even after a stellar week for Romney, he still doesn't have an overwhelming lead. This could be the sign of a turning point, but the election is far from over.

Romney Approaching Last Chance as Debate Looms

Wednesday could be Mitt Romney's last chance to get back in the race for president. After a rocky couple of weeks full of hidden camera recordings, accusations of mistruths, and somber polls, Mitt Romney is seeking his final opportunity to turn his campaign around.

The debate will take place at the University of Denver, and will be moderated by NewsHour host Jim Lehrer. The debate will center on domestic policy issues, and will be the first of three televised presidential debates. This debate will serve as the last chance for Romney's campaign to get back on track. Romney's campaign efforts took a huge blow after the airing of a secretly recorded tape in which Romney told a group of donors in Florida that "there are 47% of the people that will vote for the president no matter what." He went on to say that these 47% of Americans, who paid no income tax, believed that "they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing." The remark has since left Romney trailing in the polls and he is trying to gain back some ground.

If Mitt Romney manages to out-debate President Obama, and persuade Americans that he is better for our country, he might have a shot at winning the Presidency. On the other hand if Romney loses the debate it will be extremely hard for him to recover after this string of gaffes and scandals. In the end this debate is much more important for Romney than it is for Obama. If Romney were to win, he'd begin to challenge Obama, but the polls would be close. On the other hand, even if the debate doesn't go well for the president, he will likely maintain a slight lead. And if Obama wins the debate, he will be nearly impossible to beat. So, while Obama would definitely like to win this debate, and end this election quickly, it would not hurt him immensely to lose this debate.

If Romney wants to do well in this debate, he has to try to connect with the middle class, and regroup after his 47% comment. Throughout this campaign, Romney has struggled with his likability and connection with average Americans. If Romney wants to bridge the gap between him and President Obama, he'll have to convince voters that he will be better for the economy and so they should vote for him. If he wants to do well in the first debate, Romney needs to channel people's anger and frustration with the economy towards Obama. As there is nearly no way that Romney's likability numbers will top Obama's, Romney has to convince voters that he is a more rational choice and they should not just vote with their emotions. President Obama's job is much simpler. He must convince Americans that Mitt Romney is disconnected from the middle class, and that Romney's plans will only help the wealthy. This will be easier for Obama in part due to Romney's 47% comment, but also because, in an unsuccessful effort to distract people from his comments, Romney released more of his taxes, which further distanced him from the middle class. With only 37 days left, Romney has a difficult task of turning the electorate around, so close to the election.

Obama's Convention Speech Delivers Polling Bump

Thursday night was a big night for the president. It was Barack Obama's greatest chance to make the case for a second term in the White House. His opponent, Mitt Romney had had the same opportunity the week before, yet his speech failed to result in any significant boost in the polls. This was Obama's chance to capitalize.
            Obama took the stage on the final night of the DNC after strong speeches from his wife, former President Bill Clinton, and the Vice President. Many were hoping that this speech would be where President Obama outlined the path for the future, and his plan for success.
             Instead he made a powerful speech, in which he barely touched upon the issues. His populist speech was appealing to many, yet wasn't the kind of speech some voters wanted to hear. Obama's speech was extremely popular in the arena, and also moderately popular in the polls.
              Many argue that former President Bill Clinton outlined Obama's plan for the future, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, almost 30% of surveyed DNC viewers thought Clinton's speech was the highlight of the DNC, compared to just 16% saying Obama's speech was the highlight.
               Romney received virtually no convention bump, so this was Obama's time to capitalize. Going into the convention, they were tied, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the president had a four point advantage over his challenger. While both speeches were full of jabs, and hope, neither outlined a clear path for the future. Polls show that in the end, people liked Obama's speech slightly better than Romney's, but Obama's speech was still a mediocre end to a stellar convention.

RNC 2012: The Weird, The Wonderful, The Underwhelming, and The… Well… Wrong

This year's Republican National Convention (RNC) has come to a close. The convention featured many speakers, all who tried to make the case for Mitt Romney. The event had been scaled down from the original plans of four days full of speakers, to just three full days, due to the outburst of Hurricane Isaac, which threatened to hit Tampa, the site of this year's Republican Convention. Isaac caused cuts to many speakers, including Donald Trump, who announced his support for Romney earlier this year. The Republican Convention was opened for ten minutes on Monday, just enough time for RNC Chairman, Reince Preibus to call the convention to order, and start the National Debt Clock. The convention came to a close on Thursday, after speeches from Mitt Romney, Ann Romney, Paul Ryan, and many other notable figures. The main speeches can be boiled down into about four categories, weird, wonderful, underwhelming, and wrong.

The Weird:
Famed Director Clint Eastwood's speech was, by all definitions of the word, weird. Eastwood is a longtime conservative and one time mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea, and up until the day of his speech, he was a surprise speaker. Eastwood's bizarre speech supporting Romney featured him repeatedly telling an empty stool that was supposedly Barack Obama to "shut up". Eastwood's absurd speech countered, and some say even overshadowed, Mitt Romney's acceptance speech in it's memorability.

The Wonderful
Ann Romney's speech to the GOP Convention was a wonderful part of convention, taking the focus off politics, and putting it on Mitt Romney personally. Ann Romney's speech served as a way to humanize Mitt Romney, into a loving parent of 5 boys, rather than a robotic, elitist politician, which many political ads portray him as. Ann Romney's speech also served as a way to connect to female voters, who have been more hostile towards Mitt Romney than men. Ann Romney tried to court women by sharing the image of motherhood, and even stated "I love women". While an obvious attempt to court voters, Ann Romney's speech was a refreshing break from the politics, and rhetoric surrounding the convention.

The Underwhelming

Mitt Romney took the stage at the Republican Convention in Tampa, the moment the entire convention hall had been waiting to hear. His speech criticized Obama, but didn't give his views on anything. While his speech tried to frame himself as a good person, and roused the GOP delegates in the arena, it didn't do very much for the American people. In a poll on CNN's Facebook page, just 40% of repondents said that the speech made them more supportive of Romney, while 60% of respondents said that the speech made them less supportive, or didn't make a difference.

The Wrong
Paul Ryan delivered a powerful speech, in which he ruthlessly attacked President Obama. The only problem was that at times, it was a little less than factual. Ryan attacked Obama for coming to his hometown of Janesville, Wisconsin, and promising that under a good government a local business like the car factory Ryan was talking about, would be around for 100 years. Ryan said that the plant closed before the year was over. Although technically this is true, Paul Ryan leaves out one crucial part: the plant closed under Bush, not Obama. He went onto attack Obama for not listening to a bi-partisan group created to reduce the national debt. The only problem here, Paul Ryan also supported throwing out the groups proposal! Next Ryan went on to say that President Obama cut $716 billion from Medicare. Again true, but Ryan leaves out more critical information: his plan also sought to cut $716 billion from Medicare. Paul  Ryan's speech gave fact checkers a field day, and the Obama Team scrambling to spread the facts.

Romney Introduces "The Next President of the United States"

…Paul Ryan! Earlier this week, Mitt Romney announced that he had chosen tea party darling Paul Ryan to be his running mate in the upcoming presidential election. Romney's announcement was a rather safe choice, he didn't bring in a "maverick" like Sarah Palin, and Paul Ryan is a semi-popular senator in a key swing state: Wisconsin. While Paul Ryan is no Sarah Palin, as of yet, he has already drawn criticism for his stance on medicare, with many worried he will replace medicare with a voucher program. Ryan, a Tea Party darling, is perhaps most famous for writing much of the 2012 and 2013 Republican budget proposals. A new Washington Post/ABC Poll shows that only 38% of people surveyed viewed Ryan favorably, while this is a fifteen percent jump from before Gov. Romney's announcement, it still remains well below the 50% mark.

Bachmann's Terrorist Witch Hunt

Well, she's back in the news again! Six months after ending her presidential campaign, Michele Bachmann has made the headlines again, by accusing members of government of being Muslim extremists. Bachmann (R-Minnesota) and other members of the Republican Party have called on many high level officials in government, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's deputy chief of staff, Huma Abedin. In letters from Bachmann, written to various bodies of government Bachmann raised concerns about extremist infiltration of the U.S. Government. In some of these letters, Bachmann stated that Abedin should not have received security clearance, because some of Abedin's relations were supposedly connected to the Muslim Brotherhood. While Bachmann has been known for her outspokenness, and several major gaffes, none have been as serious as accusing someone, reputed to be a faithful civil servant, of having terrorist ties. In response to this, many Republican congressmen have been quick to distance themselves from Bachmann, including Speaker of the House, John Boehner who said such allegations were "pretty dangerous". Other members of Congress have also condemned Bachmann, including fellow Minnesotan Keith Ellison, a Muslim, have asked for evidence to support Bachmann's claims. Bachmann's unsupported claims show a sad example of a political figure trying to stay in the limelight after the expiration of their fifteen minutes of fame. One can only assume that Michele Bachmann is trying to remain unforgotten, either in the hopes of supporting her congress campaign, or a presidential bid in 2016.

Health Care Gains Strength, for a Full and Speedy Recovery

The very different reactions of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (left), and Speaker of the House John Boehner (right)

With a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court found the individual mandate in Obamacare constitutional, and with it, one of President Obama's most important pieces of legislation has secured its place in history. In a vote that stunned many, Chief Justice Roberts, a Bush appointee, decided the law was constitutional, and that the government did have the right to tax individuals who could, but wouldn't, purchase healthcare. This decision may have bolstered the Supreme Court's reputation for impartiality, because a vote down party lines, would have suggested bias in the Supreme Court. President Obama hailed this as a victory, while Governor Romney promises that if elected he would work to repeal it

Obama's Healthcare Plan on Life Support

The Supreme Court will issue its decision on Obamacare any day now. There are three possible scenarios which could occur. One: the Supreme Court could uphold Obamacare, which would be considered a huge victory for President Obama, while deflating the opposition. Two: the Supreme Court accepts parts of Obamacare, but throws out the most critical part, the individual mandate, which requires all individuals to purchase healthcare, or pay a penalty. This would not yield a clear winner, but Obama could be thought of as the loser. Three: the Supreme Court kills Obamacare, in a huge victory for the bill's opposition, and an immense loss for Obama. The issue of healthcare has split America into two groups,  mostly divided along party lines. It will also be interesting to see if the justices of the Supreme Court votes along their known leanings.

Obama Kicks Off Re-election Campaign

President Barack Obama kicked off his campaign with stops in battleground states Ohio, and Virginia. In 2008 President Obama won both states, but the two are considered swing states, and could very well decide the next general election. Drawing from his popular message of "hope," and "change," Obama's new slogan is "Forward." Obama praised Romney as a person, but proceeded to attack Romney on his incapability to be president. The 2012 election for president has officially begun, and as of now it's anyone's game, and it will most likely come down to election day, before anyone can predict who will be president.

Romney Continues Victories in Now Unnecessary GOP Primaries

Mitt Romney won five states in primaries that just a few weeks ago, we would have been watching closely. Governor Romney of Massachusetts swept all five states in the now obsolete republican primary. The primaries contained many important states, including home state for former candidate Rick Santorum. Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania was what Santorum said would be the last straw for his campaign, if he lost. Instead Santorum dropped out what seems like eons ago, while Fmr. Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich prepares to drop out of the race. The general election has already started, and all eyes now turn to Romney's vice presidential pick.

Rep. Allen West Calls Some Democratic Congressmen "Communist"

Republican congressman of Florida, and tea party darling Allen West said today that he believed that over 80 democratic members of congress were communist. Rep. West said that the Congressional Progressive Caucus was just a codename for a communist society in the US. While these remarks are untrue, they remind many people of when Senator Joe McCarthy stood up, and told the world that there were communists in the state department. Senator McCarthy's actions ignited a firestorm, and resulted in a series of witch hunts for the capture of these so called "communists". Senator West's remarks show a truly divided congress that uses foolish, lie-filled banter, used to hurl at the other side of the aisle, so that whichever party can try to blame the other guys for incompetence.

Romney's Sweep Shows End of the Line for Santorum

The Republican race for president is just about over, with Mitt Romney increasing his certainty of becoming the inevitable nominee. After a sweep in the three states that voted on Tuesday, Santorum's at the end of his luck. Now going onward into Pennsylvania, his home state in which he lost his senate bid by a landslide margin, his last chance is long gone. Though voters could change their minds, and in some weird turn of events there could be no consensus by the convention, and then the attendees of the convention would have to vote, there is a 99% chance of Romney getting the nomination. Romney has stopped mentioning Santorum, or any of the other candidates in his speeches. He's now directly targeting the president. While Santorum shows no signs of suspending his campaign, there is little to none chance of him being on the ballot in November. It seems that the long Republican race has just about drawn to a close. As of now, Santorum can only further embarrass himself with a loss in his home state 

Wisconsin: The Dairy State's Decision

Wisconsin will get its chance to choose the next republican presidential nominee on Tuesday, and all polls favor Romney. The former Massachusetts governor has solidified his lead in Wisconsin with endorsements from popular Wisconsinites congressman Paul Ryan, and Senator Ron Johnson. This is expected to be one of Santorum's last chances at the nomination, which after a loss in the upcoming primaries, would be almost statistically impossible. The usually democratic state of Maryland, and the District of Columbia (where, in 2008, Obama captured 92% of the vote). This could be Santorum's last chance

Romney's Regal Residence

In recent months, Governor Mitt Romney has come under fire for not being able to connect to the middle class. The multimillionaire notorious for saying things like "Ann drives a couple of Cadillacs," and "Ten thousand dollars," has come received a lot of grief over his latest housing project. Romney is renovating his 3,000+ sq. foot house, by adding a 3,600 foot basement, an outdoor shower system, and a car elevator. Yes, a car elevator. In the Romney campaigns defense, car elevator just means a place to store cars where there isn't much space (according to them). The project had been put off until after the election (for obvious reasons), but was resumed, and is scheduled to be completed. Though it is uncertain whether Romney will plummet in the polls after this, or if it will affect his performance at all, it is almost certain that his opponents will go after him.



Credit to MSN for the image

The Legality of the Law

Fiery debates have ensued over the constitutionality of President Obama's healthcare bill (dubbed "Obamacare"). Protestors swarmed the streets of D. C., some in favor of Obamacare, and some opposed to it. The issue will be taken in up in the Supreme Court, but a final decision won't be reached until June. The health care bill, which mandates health care to each and every citizen of the U.S., has created a chasm between political parties. Supporters of Obamacare say that since everyone is admitted to the hospital, no matter what, it just equalizes the burden of paying for other people's health. Opponents say that this means the government is forcing everyone to buy something from private firms, which is unconstitutional. Though the current debate suggests the Supreme Court leaning towards striking down the bill, just a few days ago many people were certain it would uphold the law. A lot could happen between now and June.

Santorum Swears at NY Times Reporter

Today Rick Santorum lost his political innocence. The "family values" candidate lashed out at New York Times reporter Jeff Zeleny. The candidate got mad at Zeleny for "distorting his words" (when in fact he used a quote from Santorum's speech). Santorum then proceeded to lash out with these harsh (and inappropriate) words: "Quit distorting my words. It's bulls***". After cursing a reporter who was just doing his job, and asking questions about Santorum's speech, you'd think it would be hard for him to continue to run as the family values candidate. You'd assume this would be a serious blow for the Santorum Campaign. Wrong! Santorum responded to this incident on fox news saying "Only real Republicans curse out New York Times Reporters". In fact he's turned this event into a fundraiser! Santorum has found a way to turn it around, and pretend that cursing someone who was just doing their job is a good thing. Santorum has turned this into "Help fight the New York Times" who has "attacked" Santorum. See what really happened in the video below.

Road to 1144: Louisiana

The Bayou State has chosen it's victor. With 100% of precincts in, as predicted, former senator Rick Santorum has won the Louisiana primary. Though Santorum won a majority of the eighteen delegates at stake, (the rest will be awarded the GOP Convention) it wasn't a complete victory. Louisiana State Constitution states that any candidate who gets 25% or more of the popular vote will be awarded delegates. Gov. Mitt Romney also did--barely--get 25% of the vote, meaning that he will also take home a share of the delegates at stake. So while these results are good for the Santorum campaign, it shows that even in a deep south "bible belt" state with a "blowout" victory,  far from winning all the delegates, he could not even win the 75% of the delegates that he needed to average for the nomination. He only got 13 delegates (65%). So while this is a big victory for Santorum, he's getting farther and farther away from a chance at 1,144 needed for nomination.

OFFICIAL RESULTS

Candidate                                 delegates      # of votes       % of vote

Sen. Rick Santorum*	13 delegates   91,305	49%
Gov. Mitt Romney*	7 delgates      49,749	26.7%
Con. Newt Gingrich	0 delegates    29,655	15.9%
Con. Ron Paul	0 delegates     11,460	6.1%
Other	0 delegates      4,208	2.3%

*Will receive a share of delegates at stake

Original official results image source: Google (modified to current form)

Cover Image Source: Yahoo! News 

Louisiana… Fast!

The campaign trail has headed back to the deep south for the Louisiana Primary. After victories in Mississippi, and Alabama, Santorum is considered a favorite in the Louisiana Primary. He'll need it to prove that Romney is not the inevitable nominee, but right now the math shows that Romney is the inevitable nominee.  Since Romney has almost 2.3x as many delegates as Santorum does, Santorum will need to win almost 75% of the remaining delegates if he has any chance of becoming the nominee. It would take a miracle for something different to happen (which Santorum will be praying for). The latest Public Policy Polling poll in Louisiana shows Santorum with a fourteen point lead over Romney. Like most other states, Romney is likely to win the urban centers of populace, like New Orleans, and maybe Baton Rouge. It will be interesting do see how Romney does in another state in which the majority of republican voters identifiy themselves as very conservative.




Credit to Wikipedia for this image

Romney Advisor Etch-a-sketch's a Lopsided Picture

It's happened. The Romney Campaign has admitted it flip flops. Senior advisor to the Romney Campaign Eric Fehrnstrom had this to say when asked if Romney's views were too conservative: “everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch a Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again." Fehrnstrom, of course, is indicating that once Romney gains the Republican electorate, he will immediately flip his views to a more moderate stance. These comments enraged a increasingly discontented republican electorate, who are not particularly happy with the choice for republican candidate for president. The current choice is between an extremely social conservative, who criticizes Obama for not running a christian theology, a twice divorced adulterer , Ron Paul who's just… well Ron Paul, and finally Gov. Romney, who's now a self proclaimed serial flip flopper.


Credit to Gawker.com for the image