Attention, please. New posts are being written, and shall be published late August/early September. Be on the lookout for new posts.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Monday, November 12, 2012
Obama Re-Elected in Electoral Landslide
Obama has officially won the state of Florida, finalizing the electoral tally of 332:206. While this year's popular vote was extremely close (51:48) Obama won by almost as large a margin in the electoral college system as he had in 2008. As predicted, most coastal and urban areas went democratic, while Republicans had a better grasp of the rural, landlocked areas. This lead Obama win a second term.
The problem for Obama is what happens next: the Presidency. Just like before the election, Obama faces a divided Congress. The Senate remained democratic after key losses by Republicans (Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock). Instead of winning the Senate as party leaders predicted, the Republicans lost seats in the Senate. It was the House that ruined the Democrats' perfect night. The democrats could not win enough seats to take back the house. While they did gain a few seats, their performance was no where near as great as the Republicans had in 2010.
The problem for Obama is what happens next: the Presidency. Just like before the election, Obama faces a divided Congress. The Senate remained democratic after key losses by Republicans (Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock). Instead of winning the Senate as party leaders predicted, the Republicans lost seats in the Senate. It was the House that ruined the Democrats' perfect night. The democrats could not win enough seats to take back the house. While they did gain a few seats, their performance was no where near as great as the Republicans had in 2010.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Close Race Headed for Home
The Elephant and The Donkey's Election Day Predictions
While the election appears to be trending Obama on the Electoral College front, Romney could easily win the popular vote. A variety of factors could also change the result of the election. For one Hurricane Sandy could make a mess of transportation. This would let only the most passionate of East Coast voters come to the polls. Voter turn out could be extremely low. While it's extremely likely that President Obama will be re-elected as the saying goes, it ain't over till it's over.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Race Tightens After Obama Flops at Debate
Wednesday's debate was Mitt Romney's last chance. It seemed nearly impossible that Mitt Romney could get back into the presidential race. His campaign was plagued with bad news, the end result had Romney down six points in the polls. Romney's chances were so low just weeks before the election, but Romney did the improbable, he turned the polls around. Obama's seemingly unstoppable lead was neutralized.
From the start of the night, the President was a little shaky. He dodged questions, misrepresented facts, and seemed generally uncomfortable. The debate had Obama on the defense, and Romney leading a strong offense. Nearly every point the President made Gov. Romney would counter. Romney left the debate the clear victor, once again energizing his campaign and base.
Obama, however, leaves the week with two pieces of good news. First, a stellar jobs report shows that the unemployment rate has dropped under the magic number of 8% to 7.8%. Obama had been quoted saying that if unemployment was above eight percent by the next election, then he would be looking at "a one term proposition". The 7.8% unemployment rate will be a huge boost to his campaign, serving as a check mark to one of his most famous promises.
Obama's second piece of good news was the number of donations Obama earned during the month of September. September was a very strong month for Obama. It started with a stellar Democratic Convention, and ended with Romney's infamous 47% comment. The net result of the month: a record setting $181 million. These numbers will provide a boost to the Obama Campaign, which hadn't been raising as much money as the Romney Campaign in recent months.
The race has become much closer after the debate, and it was a missed opportunity for Obama. While this week will not end on an extremely high note, which should normally happen after the jobs numbers and the donation numbers, the accomplishments balanced out the debate performances leaving the Obama Campaign hopeful for the weeks to come. While the Obama Campaign has had an okay week, Romney's campaign has had a wonderful, and possibly game-changing week. Romney's debate performance has put him back in the presidential race. This week's clear winner was Romney. Still, even after a stellar week for Romney, he still doesn't have an overwhelming lead. This could be the sign of a turning point, but the election is far from over.
From the start of the night, the President was a little shaky. He dodged questions, misrepresented facts, and seemed generally uncomfortable. The debate had Obama on the defense, and Romney leading a strong offense. Nearly every point the President made Gov. Romney would counter. Romney left the debate the clear victor, once again energizing his campaign and base.
Obama, however, leaves the week with two pieces of good news. First, a stellar jobs report shows that the unemployment rate has dropped under the magic number of 8% to 7.8%. Obama had been quoted saying that if unemployment was above eight percent by the next election, then he would be looking at "a one term proposition". The 7.8% unemployment rate will be a huge boost to his campaign, serving as a check mark to one of his most famous promises.
Obama's second piece of good news was the number of donations Obama earned during the month of September. September was a very strong month for Obama. It started with a stellar Democratic Convention, and ended with Romney's infamous 47% comment. The net result of the month: a record setting $181 million. These numbers will provide a boost to the Obama Campaign, which hadn't been raising as much money as the Romney Campaign in recent months.
The race has become much closer after the debate, and it was a missed opportunity for Obama. While this week will not end on an extremely high note, which should normally happen after the jobs numbers and the donation numbers, the accomplishments balanced out the debate performances leaving the Obama Campaign hopeful for the weeks to come. While the Obama Campaign has had an okay week, Romney's campaign has had a wonderful, and possibly game-changing week. Romney's debate performance has put him back in the presidential race. This week's clear winner was Romney. Still, even after a stellar week for Romney, he still doesn't have an overwhelming lead. This could be the sign of a turning point, but the election is far from over.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Romney Approaching Last Chance as Debate Looms
Wednesday could be Mitt Romney's last chance to get back in the race for president. After a rocky couple of weeks full of hidden camera recordings, accusations of mistruths, and somber polls, Mitt Romney is seeking his final opportunity to turn his campaign around.
The debate will take place at the University of Denver, and will be moderated by NewsHour host Jim Lehrer. The debate will center on domestic policy issues, and will be the first of three televised presidential debates. This debate will serve as the last chance for Romney's campaign to get back on track. Romney's campaign efforts took a huge blow after the airing of a secretly recorded tape in which Romney told a group of donors in Florida that "there are 47% of the people that will vote for the president no matter what." He went on to say that these 47% of Americans, who paid no income tax, believed that "they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing." The remark has since left Romney trailing in the polls and he is trying to gain back some ground.
If Mitt Romney manages to out-debate President Obama, and persuade Americans that he is better for our country, he might have a shot at winning the Presidency. On the other hand if Romney loses the debate it will be extremely hard for him to recover after this string of gaffes and scandals. In the end this debate is much more important for Romney than it is for Obama. If Romney were to win, he'd begin to challenge Obama, but the polls would be close. On the other hand, even if the debate doesn't go well for the president, he will likely maintain a slight lead. And if Obama wins the debate, he will be nearly impossible to beat. So, while Obama would definitely like to win this debate, and end this election quickly, it would not hurt him immensely to lose this debate.
If Romney wants to do well in this debate, he has to try to connect with the middle class, and regroup after his 47% comment. Throughout this campaign, Romney has struggled with his likability and connection with average Americans. If Romney wants to bridge the gap between him and President Obama, he'll have to convince voters that he will be better for the economy and so they should vote for him. If he wants to do well in the first debate, Romney needs to channel people's anger and frustration with the economy towards Obama. As there is nearly no way that Romney's likability numbers will top Obama's, Romney has to convince voters that he is a more rational choice and they should not just vote with their emotions. President Obama's job is much simpler. He must convince Americans that Mitt Romney is disconnected from the middle class, and that Romney's plans will only help the wealthy. This will be easier for Obama in part due to Romney's 47% comment, but also because, in an unsuccessful effort to distract people from his comments, Romney released more of his taxes, which further distanced him from the middle class. With only 37 days left, Romney has a difficult task of turning the electorate around, so close to the election.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Obama's Convention Speech Delivers Polling Bump
Thursday night was a big night for the president. It was Barack Obama's greatest chance to make the case for a second term in the White House. His opponent, Mitt Romney had had the same opportunity the week before, yet his speech failed to result in any significant boost in the polls. This was Obama's chance to capitalize.
Obama took the stage on the final night of the DNC after strong speeches from his wife, former President Bill Clinton, and the Vice President. Many were hoping that this speech would be where President Obama outlined the path for the future, and his plan for success.
Instead he made a powerful speech, in which he barely touched upon the issues. His populist speech was appealing to many, yet wasn't the kind of speech some voters wanted to hear. Obama's speech was extremely popular in the arena, and also moderately popular in the polls.
Many argue that former President Bill Clinton outlined Obama's plan for the future, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, almost 30% of surveyed DNC viewers thought Clinton's speech was the highlight of the DNC, compared to just 16% saying Obama's speech was the highlight.
Romney received virtually no convention bump, so this was Obama's time to capitalize. Going into the convention, they were tied, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the president had a four point advantage over his challenger. While both speeches were full of jabs, and hope, neither outlined a clear path for the future. Polls show that in the end, people liked Obama's speech slightly better than Romney's, but Obama's speech was still a mediocre end to a stellar convention.
Obama took the stage on the final night of the DNC after strong speeches from his wife, former President Bill Clinton, and the Vice President. Many were hoping that this speech would be where President Obama outlined the path for the future, and his plan for success.
Instead he made a powerful speech, in which he barely touched upon the issues. His populist speech was appealing to many, yet wasn't the kind of speech some voters wanted to hear. Obama's speech was extremely popular in the arena, and also moderately popular in the polls.
Many argue that former President Bill Clinton outlined Obama's plan for the future, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, almost 30% of surveyed DNC viewers thought Clinton's speech was the highlight of the DNC, compared to just 16% saying Obama's speech was the highlight.
Romney received virtually no convention bump, so this was Obama's time to capitalize. Going into the convention, they were tied, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the president had a four point advantage over his challenger. While both speeches were full of jabs, and hope, neither outlined a clear path for the future. Polls show that in the end, people liked Obama's speech slightly better than Romney's, but Obama's speech was still a mediocre end to a stellar convention.
Friday, August 31, 2012
RNC 2012: The Weird, The Wonderful, The Underwhelming, and The… Well… Wrong
This year's Republican National Convention (RNC) has come to a close. The convention featured many speakers, all who tried to make the case for Mitt Romney. The event had been scaled down from the original plans of four days full of speakers, to just three full days, due to the outburst of Hurricane Isaac, which threatened to hit Tampa, the site of this year's Republican Convention. Isaac caused cuts to many speakers, including Donald Trump, who announced his support for Romney earlier this year. The Republican Convention was opened for ten minutes on Monday, just enough time for RNC Chairman, Reince Preibus to call the convention to order, and start the National Debt Clock. The convention came to a close on Thursday, after speeches from Mitt Romney, Ann Romney, Paul Ryan, and many other notable figures. The main speeches can be boiled down into about four categories, weird, wonderful, underwhelming, and wrong.
The Weird:
Famed Director Clint Eastwood's speech was, by all definitions of the word, weird. Eastwood is a longtime conservative and one time mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea, and up until the day of his speech, he was a surprise speaker. Eastwood's bizarre speech supporting Romney featured him repeatedly telling an empty stool that was supposedly Barack Obama to "shut up". Eastwood's absurd speech countered, and some say even overshadowed, Mitt Romney's acceptance speech in it's memorability.
The Wonderful
Ann Romney's speech to the GOP Convention was a wonderful part of convention, taking the focus off politics, and putting it on Mitt Romney personally. Ann Romney's speech served as a way to humanize Mitt Romney, into a loving parent of 5 boys, rather than a robotic, elitist politician, which many political ads portray him as. Ann Romney's speech also served as a way to connect to female voters, who have been more hostile towards Mitt Romney than men. Ann Romney tried to court women by sharing the image of motherhood, and even stated "I love women". While an obvious attempt to court voters, Ann Romney's speech was a refreshing break from the politics, and rhetoric surrounding the convention.
The Wrong
Paul Ryan delivered a powerful speech, in which he ruthlessly attacked President Obama. The only problem was that at times, it was a little less than factual. Ryan attacked Obama for coming to his hometown of Janesville, Wisconsin, and promising that under a good government a local business like the car factory Ryan was talking about, would be around for 100 years. Ryan said that the plant closed before the year was over. Although technically this is true, Paul Ryan leaves out one crucial part: the plant closed under Bush, not Obama. He went onto attack Obama for not listening to a bi-partisan group created to reduce the national debt. The only problem here, Paul Ryan also supported throwing out the groups proposal! Next Ryan went on to say that President Obama cut $716 billion from Medicare. Again true, but Ryan leaves out more critical information: his plan also sought to cut $716 billion from Medicare. Paul Ryan's speech gave fact checkers a field day, and the Obama Team scrambling to spread the facts.
The Weird:
Famed Director Clint Eastwood's speech was, by all definitions of the word, weird. Eastwood is a longtime conservative and one time mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea, and up until the day of his speech, he was a surprise speaker. Eastwood's bizarre speech supporting Romney featured him repeatedly telling an empty stool that was supposedly Barack Obama to "shut up". Eastwood's absurd speech countered, and some say even overshadowed, Mitt Romney's acceptance speech in it's memorability.
The Wonderful
Ann Romney's speech to the GOP Convention was a wonderful part of convention, taking the focus off politics, and putting it on Mitt Romney personally. Ann Romney's speech served as a way to humanize Mitt Romney, into a loving parent of 5 boys, rather than a robotic, elitist politician, which many political ads portray him as. Ann Romney's speech also served as a way to connect to female voters, who have been more hostile towards Mitt Romney than men. Ann Romney tried to court women by sharing the image of motherhood, and even stated "I love women". While an obvious attempt to court voters, Ann Romney's speech was a refreshing break from the politics, and rhetoric surrounding the convention.
The Underwhelming
Mitt Romney took the stage at the Republican Convention in Tampa, the moment the entire convention hall had been waiting to hear. His speech criticized Obama, but didn't give his views on anything. While his speech tried to frame himself as a good person, and roused the GOP delegates in the arena, it didn't do very much for the American people. In a poll on CNN's Facebook page, just 40% of repondents said that the speech made them more supportive of Romney, while 60% of respondents said that the speech made them less supportive, or didn't make a difference.
The Wrong
Paul Ryan delivered a powerful speech, in which he ruthlessly attacked President Obama. The only problem was that at times, it was a little less than factual. Ryan attacked Obama for coming to his hometown of Janesville, Wisconsin, and promising that under a good government a local business like the car factory Ryan was talking about, would be around for 100 years. Ryan said that the plant closed before the year was over. Although technically this is true, Paul Ryan leaves out one crucial part: the plant closed under Bush, not Obama. He went onto attack Obama for not listening to a bi-partisan group created to reduce the national debt. The only problem here, Paul Ryan also supported throwing out the groups proposal! Next Ryan went on to say that President Obama cut $716 billion from Medicare. Again true, but Ryan leaves out more critical information: his plan also sought to cut $716 billion from Medicare. Paul Ryan's speech gave fact checkers a field day, and the Obama Team scrambling to spread the facts.
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