Return from hiatus!

Dear Readers,

As many of you have noticed, the Elephant and the Donkey has been seemingly absent from the 2016 Presidential race. For the past year, this blog has been published on The Phillipian instead of here (links to selected articles below). As the general election approaches I will begin to publish on this platform again.


Name Games (Jan 2015): a reflection on assimilation in American politics
http://phillipian.net/2015/01/30/name-games/

The Pitfalls of Early Polling (Sep 2015): a discussion of the shortcomings of polling in gauging public opinion in early days
 http://phillipian.net/2015/09/17/the-pitfalls-of-early-polling/

The Bid on Biden (Oct 2015): a reflection on Joe Biden's decision not to seek the Presidency.
http://phillipian.net/2015/10/22/the-bid-on-biden/

Bringing out the Big Guns (Nov 2015): an analysis of minority support and gun control in the 2016 Democratic Primary
http://phillipian.net/2015/11/05/bringing-out-the-big-guns/

The Consequences of Citizen's United

The 2012 presidential election was the first election affected by the landmark case FEC vs. Citizens United. In the case, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations can support candidates through Super Political Action Committees, and endorsements. The Supreme Court hailed the decision as a victory for free speech. However, an unexpected result of this decision caused the US, a nation famously “of the people, for the people, and by the people” to become of, for, and by the corporations. If we are really to believe that America is a country for equality, then every American should have an equal voice.

In today’s America, elections are like a Monopoly game, with minorities being Park Place, and the youth vote as Boardwalk. Only, this game of monopoly is not for bragging rights. It’s for the leader of the free world. In both Monopoly and in an election, money is precious. In Monopoly, if a player is willing to give you Bond Street (thus completing your green monopoly) in exchange for bailing them out of jail, you would agree faster than you could pass GO, and collect 200. Similarly in politics, a politician would likely advocate for lower taxes on oil in exchange for millions of dollars of donations to Super PACs. A mildly subtle form of bribery. So it stands to reason that the highest bidder is more than willing to buy candidates--and elections.

There may be many who disagree with me, saying that Governor Romney not only outspent President Obama overall, but outspent him in most of the swing states. Despite this spending, he did lose most of the swing states. In a head-to-head comparison, it would seem like money didn’t drastically affect the election, as the richer campaign lost. But it’s worth noting that even after spending around a billion dollars (by some estimates), the Romney campaign ran out of money. So it isn’t clear what the result would have been if he had more money.

If you look at the swing states, where most of the money was spent, in the table below, you’ll notice that the larger polling gains were attributed to the candidate who spent the most money in each state. The original figures, from late March and early April 2012, just after Rick Santorum dropped out of Republican Primaries, show a pre-spending Romney desperately trailing Barack Obama. After many millions of dollars of spending, Romney managed to close the gap between himself and President Obama, but he did not have enough money to surpass the President.

            Given how close last year’s popular vote was, if Governor Romney had gained just 1.4% of the American public, who voted for President Obama, he would have won the popular vote. If it was only the amount of money spent that caused the reduced gap, the data below shows that for 168 million more dollars Governor Romney could have won the election.  Governor Romney’s top 10 donors alone donated ~$75 million—a number which is nearly half of the number he would have needed to win. To put $170 million into perspective, it’s 0.04% of the value of Apple. In the world of mega-billion dollar corporations $168 million is chump change.

Of course, this is assuming a full causal relationship between money spent and votes gained. Obviously the correlation is nowhere near this large, but even if there were only a 1% correlation, just 4% of Apple would be needed to change the winner of the Presidential election. If the outcome of an election can be changed by any amount of money—and it can, otherwise we wouldn’t be spend trillions of dollars on them—then no corporation should be allowed to donate money to any candidate, or Super PAC. Corporations are too large, and too powerful to have an unlimited say in elections.

If America is truly centered on the spirit of equality, then the more powerful and wealthy should not have a larger say. Just like Bill Gates shouldn’t get 60 billion votes, he shouldn’t be able to donate $60 billion. It’s reminiscent of Animal Farm to have all citizens equal, but some more equal than others. This thinly veiled form of bribery must stop.  It’s time we reform campaign finance laws, because government should not be the key piece to a monopoly against its citizens.

State	Poll Result1	Poll Date	Election Result	$ Spent on ads (mil)3	% Gain	$mil/% gain
Florida	O: 47.5 R: 43.3	4/26/12	O: 50 R: 49.1	O: 78 R: 95	O+2.5 R+5.8	O: 31.2 R: 16.4
Virginia	O: 47.0 R: 42.8	4/30/12	O: 51.2 R: 47.3	O: 68 R: 83	O+4.2 R+4.5	O: 16.2 R: 18.4
Ohio	O: 46.0 R: 41.8	5/4/12	O: 50.7 R: 47.7	O: 72 R: 78	O+4.7 R+5.9	O: 15.3 R: 13.2
N. Carolina	O: 46.7 R: 44.3	5/1/12	O: 48.4 R: 50.4	O: 40 R: 57	O+1.7 R+6.1	O: 23.5 R: 9.3
Colorado	O: 50 R: 43.5	5/15/12	O: 51.5 R: 46.1	O: 36 R: 37	O+1.5 R+2.6	O: 24 R: 14.2
Iowa2	O: 51.0 R: 41.0	5/7/12	O: 52.0 R: 46.2	O: 27 R: 30	O+1 R+5.2	O: 27 R: 5.8
Nevada	O: 49.7 R: 42.3	5/2/12	O: 52.4 R: 45.7	O: 26 R: 29	O+2.7 R+3.4	O: 9.7 R: 8.5
Wisconsin	O: 51.3 R: 39.5	5/1/12	O: 52.8 R: 45.8	O: 13 R: 27	O+1.5 R+6.3	O: 8.7 R: 4.28
New Hamp.	O: 46.5 R: 43	5/1/12	O: 52.0 R: 46.4	O: 18 R: 16	O+5.5 R+3.4	O: 3.3 R: 4.7
Michigan	O: 50.3 R: 39.0	5/1/12	O: 54.2 R: 47.4	O: 8 R: 24	O+3.9 R+8.4	O: 2.0 R: 2.9
USA	O: 47.9 R: 43.7	4/27/12	O: 50.6 R: 47.8	O: 404 R: 492	O+2.7 R+4.1	O:149.7 R:120

¹Source: RealClearPolitics polling average

²Source: Public Policy Polling

³Source: Washington post

Posts resuming

Attention, please. New posts are being written, and shall be published late August/early September. Be on the lookout for new posts.

Obama Re-Elected in Electoral Landslide

Obama has officially won the state of Florida, finalizing the electoral tally of 332:206. While this year's popular vote was extremely close (51:48) Obama won by almost as large a margin in the electoral college system  as he had in 2008. As predicted, most coastal and urban areas went democratic, while Republicans had a better grasp of the rural, landlocked areas. This lead Obama win a second term.
The problem for Obama is what happens next: the Presidency. Just like before the election, Obama faces a divided Congress. The Senate remained democratic after key losses by Republicans (Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock). Instead of winning the Senate as party leaders predicted, the Republicans lost seats in the Senate. It was the House that ruined the Democrats' perfect night. The democrats could not win enough seats to take back the house. While they did gain a few seats, their performance was no where near as great as the Republicans had in 2010.

Close Race Headed for Home

The Elephant and The Donkey's Election Day Predictions

             With just one week left until election day, the campaigns are at a near dead heat in the popular vote. While the Electoral College System gives an advantage to Obama, the race is far from over. Most election trackers show Obama with a 47 point Electoral College lead (now where have I heard that number before?), with 253 Colleges compared to Romney's 206. While six states are still toss-ups, most of them in dead heats, this race isn't as close as it seems. To win, all Obama has to do is pick up either Ohio, or Florida, or an assortment of other states that adds up to 17. Romney on the other hand needs to pick up every swing state (excluding New Hampshire, and Colorado) to win the Presidency.
              While the election appears to be trending Obama on the Electoral College front, Romney could easily win the popular vote. A variety of factors could also change the result of the election. For one Hurricane Sandy could make a mess of transportation. This would let only the most passionate of East Coast voters come to the polls. Voter turn out could be extremely low. While it's extremely likely that President Obama will be re-elected as the saying goes, it ain't over till it's over.

Race Tightens After Obama Flops at Debate

Wednesday's debate was Mitt Romney's last chance. It seemed nearly impossible that Mitt Romney could get back into the presidential race. His campaign was plagued with bad news, the end result had Romney down six points in the polls. Romney's chances were so low just weeks before the election, but Romney did the improbable, he turned the polls around. Obama's seemingly unstoppable lead was neutralized.
From the start of the night, the President was a little shaky. He dodged questions, misrepresented facts, and seemed generally uncomfortable. The debate had Obama on the defense, and Romney leading a strong offense. Nearly every point the President made Gov. Romney would counter. Romney left the debate the clear victor, once again energizing his campaign and base.
Obama, however, leaves the week with two pieces of good news. First, a stellar jobs report shows that the unemployment rate has dropped under the magic number of 8% to 7.8%. Obama had been quoted saying that if unemployment was above eight percent by the next election, then he would be looking at "a one term proposition". The 7.8% unemployment rate will be a huge boost to his campaign, serving as a check mark to one of his most famous promises.
Obama's second piece of good news was the number of donations Obama earned during the month of September. September was a very strong month for Obama. It started with a stellar Democratic Convention, and ended with Romney's infamous 47% comment. The net result of the month: a record setting $181 million. These numbers will provide a boost to the Obama Campaign, which hadn't been raising as much money as the Romney Campaign in recent months.
The race has become much closer after the debate, and it was a missed opportunity for Obama. While this week will not end on an extremely high note, which should normally happen after the jobs numbers and the donation numbers, the accomplishments balanced out the debate performances leaving the Obama Campaign hopeful for the weeks to come. While the Obama Campaign has had an okay week, Romney's campaign has had a wonderful, and possibly game-changing week. Romney's debate performance has put him back in the presidential race. This week's clear winner was Romney. Still, even after a stellar week for Romney, he still doesn't have an overwhelming lead. This could be the sign of a turning point, but the election is far from over.

Romney Approaching Last Chance as Debate Looms

Wednesday could be Mitt Romney's last chance to get back in the race for president. After a rocky couple of weeks full of hidden camera recordings, accusations of mistruths, and somber polls, Mitt Romney is seeking his final opportunity to turn his campaign around.

The debate will take place at the University of Denver, and will be moderated by NewsHour host Jim Lehrer. The debate will center on domestic policy issues, and will be the first of three televised presidential debates. This debate will serve as the last chance for Romney's campaign to get back on track. Romney's campaign efforts took a huge blow after the airing of a secretly recorded tape in which Romney told a group of donors in Florida that "there are 47% of the people that will vote for the president no matter what." He went on to say that these 47% of Americans, who paid no income tax, believed that "they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing." The remark has since left Romney trailing in the polls and he is trying to gain back some ground.

If Mitt Romney manages to out-debate President Obama, and persuade Americans that he is better for our country, he might have a shot at winning the Presidency. On the other hand if Romney loses the debate it will be extremely hard for him to recover after this string of gaffes and scandals. In the end this debate is much more important for Romney than it is for Obama. If Romney were to win, he'd begin to challenge Obama, but the polls would be close. On the other hand, even if the debate doesn't go well for the president, he will likely maintain a slight lead. And if Obama wins the debate, he will be nearly impossible to beat. So, while Obama would definitely like to win this debate, and end this election quickly, it would not hurt him immensely to lose this debate.

If Romney wants to do well in this debate, he has to try to connect with the middle class, and regroup after his 47% comment. Throughout this campaign, Romney has struggled with his likability and connection with average Americans. If Romney wants to bridge the gap between him and President Obama, he'll have to convince voters that he will be better for the economy and so they should vote for him. If he wants to do well in the first debate, Romney needs to channel people's anger and frustration with the economy towards Obama. As there is nearly no way that Romney's likability numbers will top Obama's, Romney has to convince voters that he is a more rational choice and they should not just vote with their emotions. President Obama's job is much simpler. He must convince Americans that Mitt Romney is disconnected from the middle class, and that Romney's plans will only help the wealthy. This will be easier for Obama in part due to Romney's 47% comment, but also because, in an unsuccessful effort to distract people from his comments, Romney released more of his taxes, which further distanced him from the middle class. With only 37 days left, Romney has a difficult task of turning the electorate around, so close to the election.