Saturday, September 29, 2012

Romney Approaching Last Chance as Debate Looms



Wednesday could be Mitt Romney's last chance to get back in the race for president. After a rocky couple of weeks full of hidden camera recordings, accusations of mistruths, and somber polls, Mitt Romney is seeking his final opportunity to turn his campaign around.

The debate will take place at the University of Denver, and will be moderated by NewsHour host Jim Lehrer. The debate will center on domestic policy issues, and will be the first of three televised presidential debates. This debate will serve as the last chance for Romney's campaign to get back on track. Romney's campaign efforts took a huge blow after the airing of a secretly recorded tape in which Romney told a group of donors in Florida that "there are 47% of the people that will vote for the president no matter what." He went on to say that these 47% of Americans, who paid no income tax, believed that "they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing." The remark has since left Romney trailing in the polls and he is trying to gain back some ground.

If Mitt Romney manages to out-debate President Obama, and persuade Americans that he is better for our country, he might have a shot at winning the Presidency. On the other hand if Romney loses the debate it will be extremely hard for him to recover after this string of gaffes and scandals. In the end this debate is much more important for Romney than it is for Obama. If Romney were to win, he'd begin to challenge Obama, but the polls would be close. On the other hand, even if the debate doesn't go well for the president, he will likely maintain a slight lead. And if Obama wins the debate, he will be nearly impossible to beat. So, while Obama would definitely like to win this debate, and end this election quickly, it would not hurt him immensely to lose this debate.

If Romney wants to do well in this debate, he has to try to connect with the middle class, and regroup after his 47% comment. Throughout this campaign, Romney has struggled with his likability and connection with average Americans. If Romney wants to bridge the gap between him and President Obama, he'll have to convince voters that he will be better for the economy and so they should vote for him. If he wants to do well in the first debate, Romney needs to channel people's anger and frustration with the economy towards Obama. As there is nearly no way that Romney's likability numbers will top Obama's, Romney has to convince voters that he is a more rational choice and they should not just vote with their emotions. President Obama's job is much simpler. He must convince Americans that Mitt Romney is disconnected from the middle class, and that Romney's plans will only help the wealthy. This will be easier for Obama in part due to Romney's 47% comment, but also because, in an unsuccessful effort to distract people from his comments, Romney released more of his taxes, which further distanced him from the middle class. With only 37 days left, Romney has a difficult task of turning the electorate around, so close to the election.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Obama's Convention Speech Delivers Polling Bump

Thursday night was a big night for the president. It was Barack Obama's greatest chance to make the case for a second term in the White House. His opponent, Mitt Romney had had the same opportunity the week before, yet his speech failed to result in any significant boost in the polls. This was Obama's chance to capitalize.
            Obama took the stage on the final night of the DNC after strong speeches from his wife, former President Bill Clinton, and the Vice President. Many were hoping that this speech would be where President Obama outlined the path for the future, and his plan for success.
             Instead he made a powerful speech, in which he barely touched upon the issues. His populist speech was appealing to many, yet wasn't the kind of speech some voters wanted to hear. Obama's speech was extremely popular in the arena, and also moderately popular in the polls.
              Many argue that former President Bill Clinton outlined Obama's plan for the future, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, almost 30% of surveyed DNC viewers thought Clinton's speech was the highlight of the DNC, compared to just 16% saying Obama's speech was the highlight.
               Romney received virtually no convention bump, so this was Obama's time to capitalize. Going into the convention, they were tied, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the president had a four point advantage over his challenger. While both speeches were full of jabs, and hope, neither outlined a clear path for the future. Polls show that in the end, people liked Obama's speech slightly better than Romney's, but Obama's speech was still a mediocre end to a stellar convention.